NOVEMBER 4, 2024

IRAN HINTING AT ACQUIRING NUKES? 

The Head of the Strategic Council for Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran who’s also Adviser to Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, Kamal Kharrazi, stated in an interview with Al Mayadeen that Iran may change its nuclear doctrine “if the nation faces an existential threat,” The Cradle reports on Nov 1; in that interview, Kharrazi said, “We now have the technical capabilities necessary to produce nuclear weapons, and we have no problem with that, while the fatwa of the Leader of the Revolution and the Islamic Republic, Sayyed Ali Khamenei, is the only thing that prevents that”; Khamenei issued a fatwa (religious edict) in the 1990s stating that the development and use of nuclear weapons is haram (forbidden); as a result, Iran’s nuclear program has so far remained for civilian use; however calls from within Iran to update the fatwa are growing as Israel continues to escalate its wars on Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza; it all started on Oct 27 during a meeting with the families of “Martyrs of Security” in Tehran when Khamenei, referring to the Israelis pinprick strikes on Iran, emphasized the need to counter Israel’s miscalculations, noting that “they (the Israelis) need to understand the power, determination, and innovation of the Iranian nation and its youth”, and further said, “Iranian authorities are responsible for determining how to demonstrate Iran’s power to the Israeli entity”; this is seen by many analysts as alluding to Khamenei giving the greenlight for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons as a deterrence against Israel’s miscalculations; what stands in the way of the nuke option as a deterrence is Khamenei’s own fatwa prohibiting the use of nuclear weapons; his stance is a continuation of his predecessor’s ruling, Ayatollah Khomeini, against all weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons; with Khamenei who had served as the President under Khomeini became Supreme Leader in 1989, Iran began publicizing Khamenei’s fatwa against nuclear weapons in 2004, but commentators and news media in the US and Europe have regarded it as a propaganda ploy not to be taken seriously; this is flawed not only due to a lack of understanding of the role of the “guardian jurist” in the Iranian political-legal system, but also due to ignorance of the history of Khamenei’s fatwa; Khamenei had actually issued the anti-nuclear fatwa without any fanfare in the mid-1990s in response to a request from an official for his religious opinion on nuclear weapons; this was never released to the public, apparently reflecting the fact that the government of then President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani had been arguing against nuclear weapons for years on strategic grounds, so publicizing the fatwa appeared unnecessary at that point; since 2012, the official stance of president Barack Obama’s administration has been to welcome the existence of Khamenei’s anti-nuclear fatwa, which he even referred to in his UN General Assembly speech in Sep 2013, but Obama’s advisors still do not understand the fatwa’s full significance: then Secretary of State John Kerry told journalists in July, “The fatwa issued by a cleric is an extremely powerful statement about intent,” but then added, “It is our need to codify it”; that statement, like most of the commentary on Khamenei’s fatwa against nuclear weapons, has confused fatawa (plural of fatwa) issued by any qualified Muslim scholar with fatawa by the Supreme Leader on matters of state policy in which the former are only relevant to those who follow the scholar’s views; the latter, however, are binding on the state as a whole, holding a legal status above mere legislation; it is an illustration of when the “guardian jurist” of Iran’s Islamic system issues a religious judgment against weapons of mass destruction as forbidden by Islam, it overrides all other political-military considerations; Khomeini’s initial fatwa against chemical weapons prevented the manufacture and use of such weapons, even though it put Iranian forces at a major disadvantage in the war against Iraq and even though the IRGC was strongly in favour of using such weapons; it is hard to imagine a tougher test of the power of the leader’s Islamic jurisprudence over an issue, and given the fundamental misunderstanding of the way in which Iran has made policy on weapons of mass destruction, negotiators who are unaware of the real history of Iran’s anti-nuclear fatawa will be prone to potentially costly miscalculations; now a pertinent question arises, i.e. can a fatwa be rescinded or amended?; there are some apologists who said that both Khomeini and Khameini’s fatawa pertain to the use of weapons of mass destruction and not to the production of such weapons; this view ignores the very dynamic concept of fatwa in Islamic jurisprudence (Usul Fiqh), in which there is the concept of maslahah mursala (the public/general good), as a way to ensure that basic human rights and needs can be fulfilled and guaranteed its sustainability; then there is also the concept of maqasid al-Shari’ah (objectives of Shariah), a term that refers to the preservation of order, achievement of benefit and prevention of harm or corruption, establishment of equality among people, causing the law to be revered, obeyed and effective as well as enabling the ummah to become powerful; hence in Islamic jurisprudence, the objectives of the Syariah become an instrument to realize maslahah; Usul Fiqh and Fiqh are synonymously translated as Islamic Jurisprudence when actually the former is a methodology and rules and principles which guide the jurist to derive legal rules from the original sources, as it is a method of derivation of rules, whereas Fiqh is the Islamic ruling itself arrived by using those legal rules in the light of the Usul Fiqh methodology; thus Fiqh is the law itself whereas Usūl al-Fiqh is the methodology utilized to extract the law, and the relationship between the two disciplines resembles that of the rules of grammar to a language, or of logic to philosophy; so by these elucidations it is very clear that Muslim scholars both Sunnis and Shiites understand very well that a fatwa can be rescinded or amended, period!!!


 

 

WHEN WILL IRAN STRIKE? 

By all accounts in the Telegram news channels and the media itself in Iran, the country is ready to strike Israel at any time from NOW, as a response to the latter’s recent strike on Iran; no more is this very clear than in the words of Iran Supreme Leader Sayyed Ali Khameini when he warned of “the crushing response Iran would deliver in retaliation to the crimes carried out against the Islamic Republic and the Resistance”; speaking on National Day of the Fight against Global Arrogance, which commemorates the anniversary of the US embassy takeover by Iranian students on November 4, 1979, Khamenei stressed Iran’s operations were not “revenge”, but rather “a logical action, an approach aligned with religion, ethics, and Islamic Law, in accordance with international regulations,” confirming that Iranian officials are constantly developing their political and military readiness to confront any hostility”; assuring his audience that Iran will not leave any aggression unanswered, he stressed that confronting arrogance is a duty because “arrogance means comprehensive economic, military, and cultural domination and the humiliation of nations”; Khamenei also addressed the long-standing animosity of the US towards Iran, asserting, “the effort of historians who distort facts is to claim that the conflict between Iran and the US began on Nov 4, 1979. This is a lie”, adding that the US opposed the Iranian nation from the very onset of the Revolution, even years before, taking actions against Iran; he noted US involvement in Iran was significant even before the coup on August 19, 1953, when the CIA overthrew the democratically elected government led by Dr Mohammad Mosaddeq, “betraying the trust of a government that had naively trusted them”, adding further that “the Shah’s [more authoritarian] rule was imposed shortly after, confirming that Iran endured direct hostility from the US for years”; Khamenei also said the US orchestrated the coup, established SAVAK in the 1950s, and created a torture centre targeting activists and freedom-seekers, with many young individuals and devoted citizens killed, tortured, or mutilated by SAVAK agents; SAVAK was founded in 1957 with the help of the CIA and Israel’s Mossad, gaining extensive powers to employ torture against dissenters of the West-backed Pahlavi regime; meanwhile the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Major General Hossein Salami, threatened “Israel” with a response that “will surpass all expectations,” asserting that the Israelis have repeated their mistake by believing it can change the balance of power in the region by launching a few missiles, while reminding Israel of the failure of its air defence systems during Iran’s Operation True Promise II, underscoring the fact that Israel relies on “a few missiles and fighter jets, yet they will not prevent your downfall”; as“you will inevitably fall”; all these words are far from rhetoric and signify Iran seriousness to retaliate against the evil and wicked state of Israel; as Iran will not be telegraphing the precise attack date and time, no one really knows when the attack will materialise but I think based on all the speeches it will happen either tonight or most likely tomorrow’s night.


 

 

CONCERN OVER CIVIL WAR IN THE AFTERMATH OF A CLOSELY FOUGHT US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION GAINING TRACTION 

Almost 27% of US citizens fear a civil war outbreak following the elections, with both Harris and Trump’s supporters expressing similar concerns, with 6% of poll takers said the possibility of a civil war breaking out post-elections was “very likely”, while 21% stated that it would be “somewhat likely”, a recent YouGov poll revealed; the survey conducted between October 18-21 for The Times and the SAY24 project, also showed that similar percentages of supporters for both Trump and Harris believed that a civil war was at least somewhat likely; 12% of the 1,266 respondents indicated they know someone who might resort to violence if they felt Trump had been unfairly denied victory, while 5% said the same about Harris; the pollsters also inquired about gun ownership but found no links to perceptions of the likelihood of a civil war; the poll exposed significant divisions in American society, with 84% of voters acknowledging that the country is more divided now than it was a decade ago; after US President Joe Biden dropped out of the election race and endorsed Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, the party experienced a “honeymoon phase” with voters, with polls indicating high chances of a Democratic win in November; however, more recent surveys show Trump leading the race and winning over key states, even within the margin of error; it’s very telling that students of the 2024/2025 academic course at the US Army Command and General Staff College were given game scenarios of combat operations that reflect the possibility of a civil war in the US but what’s more very telling is that the power of the Jewish lobby in the US is on the decline because more of their support monies go to the Harris campaign making her as the only candidate in US history to receive a record amount of $81 million in the 24-hour period since Biden’s announcement of his stunning decision to step aside compared to the peanut amount that Trump received during the same time period; at first Trump refused to see this reality and continued to campaign for a staunch support for Israel because he perhaps felt that the Jewish lobby will correct this imbalance; but as the Harris campaign continued to slice the edge that Trump has secured in previous opinion polls and even overtook Trump by a 4 percentage point in some polls, the message finally sinks in that the Jewish lobby is all out for a Harris victory; Trump subsequently changed subtly his campaign stance and looked more and more pro Palestine when he is reported to have told the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to stop the war and that he wants a ceasefire by the time he is inaugurated as the new President of the US of A; his running mate also chimed in with this stance when JD Vance indicated that US and Israeli interests won’t always overlap, tying this stance to his opposition to a war with Iran; against the backdrop of Israel’s recent retaliatory strike against Iran, Vance was asked during a podcast interview on “The Tim Dillon Show” how the Trump administration would handle what could turn into a major war in the Middle East, Vance began his answer by stressing that Israel has the right to defend itself before adding, “But America’s interest is sometimes going to be distinct”; the remark highlighted the growing isolationist wing within the Republican Party that, in Vance, is now represented on the presidential ticket as well, which appeared to run counter to ones voiced by more hawkish members of the GOP who have urged Israel to retaliate massively against Iran, including by targeting its nuclear facilities, in what could trigger all-out war; this strategy seems to bear fruit as Trump again overtook the lead in some battleground states 19 days before Nov 5 and continues to take a very marginal lead each day since then although at this moment the contest is still too close to be comfortable for both candidates; meanwhile Scott Ritter, a former UN weapons inspector and a former Marine Corp officer summed it well when he said: “When I started Operation DAWN, it was meant to provide a platform that could be used to pressure candidates for the US presidency to better articulate their position regarding free speech and the danger of nuclear war. I attempted to engage with all three campaigns (Trump, Harris, Stein). Only the Trump campaign engaged. Stein initially responded in positive fashion, but then backed away. The Harris campaign has articulated policy positions which exacerbate the threat of nuclear war and the ongoing assault on free speech. If Harris is elected, I assess that there is a real danger of a nuclear conflict in the first year of her term. Her foreign policy team will continue the failed policies of her predecessor while attempting to achieve a major foreign policy victory. The inevitable failure of this initiative will lead to a reliance upon conventional military means the US does not possess. The pressure to use nuclear weapons will be very strong, and Harris lacks the experience necessary to push back. A vote for Harris would be a vote for nuclear war. Harris has shown a proclivity toward using law enforcement to limit free speech. This is a very dangerous trait that touches the heart of what it means to be American. A vote for Harris is a vote against free speech. Stein has articulated policies that oppose nuclear war and defend free speech. I wish she would have worked with Operation DAWN to better flesh these out. Stein will not be the next President. If enough people vote for Stein, there is a chance the Green Party gets over the 5% threshold for federal funding, making a third party candidacy viable in the future. This is a worthy goal.There are many negatives about a Trump presidency. But on the two issues I have highlighted as being of an existential nature for the future of America – preventing nuclear war and defending free speech – his campaign has articulated policies which address the issues heading into. Whether Trump will follow through on these policies is unknown. He is the President who pulled out of both the INF Treaty and JCPOA. His track record is not strong. But in a time of bad choices, he is the only one who has offered a glimmer of hope regarding the two existential issues of our time. Operation DAWN was designed to help the American voter make better informed decisions when going to the polls on Election Day. I believe it has contributed greatly to this mission. Good luck, and may America make the right choices. Our survival, and that of the entire world, depends on it. What would you do to save Democracy? What would you do to save America? What would you do to save the World? Through your vote in November?”

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