AUGUST 12, 2024
TENSE DAYS AWAITING IRANIAN RETRIBUTION
An Advisor to the Leader of Iran Sayyed Ali Khamenei, Ali Shamkhani, while stressing on Saturday that preparations are already in place for a “severe and crushing” retaliation against Israel following the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, has also condemned the Israeli strike at Al-Tabieen school in Gaza City, killing over 100 Palestinians who were performing their fajar prayers, arguing “the only goal of Israel in killing worshippers at the school and assassinating martyr Haniyeh in Iran is warmongering and derailing truce talks”, and hence he added, “legal, diplomatic and media processes laid the ground for severely punishing a regime that only understands the language of force”; meanwhile a retired Israeli Major General Israel Ziv says Iran is earning points as Israel is experiencing tense days awaiting Iranian retaliation, while at the same time emphasizing the intensity of the fighting in the West Bank is no less than that in Gaza, adding that “even the assassinations that Israel boasts about are meaningless” if they lead to the same situation.
THE COMPLEXITY OF MODERN WARFARE: CAN THE US AND ITS ALLIES REPEL IRANIAN STRIKES
According to many analysts this time around it won’t be a smooth sailing affair for the US and its allies to defend Israel with the impending Iranian strikes on it, as unlike the Iranian April 13 strike, Iran this time does not telegraphed the time and day of its strikes leaving Israel, US and its allies clueless about it, thus rendering a psychological warfare victory to Iran; moreover the nature of the strike remains clueless to Israelis and the Americans i.e. whether it is a strike by Iran alone or strikes by all components of the Axis of Resistance co-ordinated by Iran, or whether it’s a one-off strikes or continuous strikes for days; even US officials have admitted it would be very difficult this time to replicate the success of the US and Co. on April 13 in smashing Iranian drones and missiles; also whether Jordan role’s on behalf of the American in smashing Iranian drones and missiles on April 13 will be repeated this time around remains very iffy, as Amman is reported to have quickly denied the allegations attributed to Jordanian security sources that it has informed Israel that it will be allowed to use the kingdom’s airspace to repel Iran’s anticipated retaliation for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran; meanwhile Washington has enlisted Cyprus in its efforts to protect Israel, as a US military delegation visited Cyprus this week and held urgent meetings with Cypriot defense and intelligence officials, Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar reported on August 9, adding: “Cypriot officials have been keen to communicate with … the axis of resistance, especially Hezbollah, to convey the message that what is happening ‘is happening against their will, and that they do not want to involve their country in any war’, and they expressed their fear that the island could become an arena for a confrontation with Iran, Hezbollah, and even Ansarallah”; all these developments have created a sense of fear in US Defence Chief Lloyd Austin who on Aug 12 ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln to accelerate its arrival in the region and announced the deployment of a guided missile submarine to the Middle East amid escalating tensions.
Read more:
Very hard to replicate interception success against 2nd strike: Axios
Jordan allows Israel use of its airspace to repel Iranian strikes: Report
Iran Expects Muslim Countries to Support Revenge for Haniyeh’s Death – Top Diplomat
US enlists Cyprus, Jordan, Greece as ‘defensive platforms’ for Israel: Report
Will Turkiye move to scuttle Israeli–Cypriot cooperation?
The geopolitical and legal dimensions of Nasrallah’s warning to Cyprus
Cyprus plays down collaboration with Israel after Hezbollah warning
THE PREPAREDNESS OF ALL PARTIES
The navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has expanded its arsenal with new capabilities like high-explosive anti-ship cruise missiles that cannot be tracked, which have entered service with the IRGC navy on the orders of IRGC Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami, Iranian news agency Tasnim reported on Friday; Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, said Iran reserves the right to respond to Haniyeh’s death when it deems it necessary; meanwhile an independent journalist, Jim Kavanagh told Sputnik the ‘Waiting Game’ on Iran’s part is a form of hint that a ‘Big Strike’ is imminent, while the Financial Times is saying ‘Israel’s reinforced air defences face biggest test from a synchronised Iran-led attack’ and that ‘a big issue Israel had not adequately prepared for was that Hizbollah was actively targeting its air defence and detection arrays’ and hence a huge synchronised assault by Iran and its allies – with attacks coming from different directions and in multiple forms – would be challenging for the Israeli systems to detect and track, as it would be very hard to have a ‘picture of the sky’, which in turn affects the ability to shoot the missiles and drones down, as there will always be more attackers than interceptors; this scary scenario has forced US Secretary of Defence, Llyod Austin to rush and phone Israeli Defence Minister Yaov Gallant on Friday to reassure and reiterate the US’s continued firm support for “Israel’s defense” amid its ongoing genocide by sending 12 additional F-22 Raptors to the Middle East; meanwhile as an Israeli official is admitting that Hezbollah attacks are growing deadlier by the day, Israel military assessments indicate the current time is “not ideal” for a full-scale war amid the military losses in the Gaza Strip, imperfect armament conditions, and Hezbollah’s readiness, with Israeli newspaper Hayom reported the political establishment is advising the security and military establishments to do everything possible to prevent the situation from escalating into a full-scale war at this time.
Read more:
Iran’s IRGC Enhances Naval Capabilities With ‘Untrackable’ Anti-Ship Missiles Amid Rising Tensions
Waiting Game on Iran’s Response to Israeli Aggression Hints ‘Big Strike’ May Be Imminent
Israel in nerve-wracking anticipation for Hezbollah, Iran response
Israel braces for biggest test of air defences from Iran-led attack
Israel’s air defenses are ‘far from impregnable’: FT
Israeli navy on edge, high alert ahead of Hezbollah retaliation
Austin rushes to reassure Gallant of US support, urges ceasefire
US F-22s land in West Asia as Pentagon pledges to ‘defend Israel’
Hezbollah attacks growing deadlier by the day: Israeli official
Hezbollah Says Attacked 10 Israeli Army Positions in Past 24 Hours
As war widens, US assets become easy targets
Israel defeated ‘only three’ Qassam battalions in 10 months of war: Report
THE PRECARIOUS SITUATION OF AN INFILTRATION
In a recent interview on Judge Freedom’s TV show hosted by Judge Napolitano, Colonel Douglas Macgregor, a former Pentagon advisor during Donald Trump’s administration, has claimed that a group of 70 Israeli Special Forces and American mercenaries were killed during a covert operation in Yemen; the group was detected by Russian satellites shortly after successfully infiltrating Yemen, and this information was relayed by Russia to Iran, who then informed the Houthis; the group was then ambushed and killed by the Houthis, with footage reportedly available of the aftermath, according to Colonel Macgregor, adding that while most of the deceased were Israelis, some American mercenaries and possibly British contractors were also involved; meanwhile Vice Admiral George Wikoff, commander of US Naval Forces Central Command, emphasized that addressing the Yemeni threat requires more than just military might and admits the difficulty in identifying a critical vulnerability within the Yemeni Armed Forces that the US forces can consistently target; on Aug 7, Yemeni Armed Forces announced they had conducted three operations: two of which involved the targeting of US destroyers – US destroyer Cole and US destroyer Laboon – with several ballistic missiles, with Brigadier General Yahya Saree, spokesperson for the Yemeni Armed Forces saying, “the targeting of the two US destroyers as they passed through the Yemeni Armed Forces’ operational area toward the northern Red Sea was part of a broader strategy to challenge American military support for the Israeli occupation”.
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