March 2022 Vol 2 No 14

Despite the buoyant and bullish anticipation of BN and many analysts that Umno/BN will win BIG in the Johor state election, your Editor, Jamari Mohtar, still think the winner of this election, let alone winning BIG, is anyone’s guess.

We are now in the last lap of the Johor state election where more than 2.59 million voters who are eligible to cast their ballots in 56 state constituencies will decide March 12 on not only who is going to be their state representatives but also which party/coalition they would like to see as their state government.
Unlike previous elections in Malaysia including federal elections, many records were broken in the Johor election.
Firstly, the number of newly registered voters is the highest – some staggering 779,743 – a 43% increase in voters from the 2018 election.
This is followed by a record of 239 candidates including 16 Independents, and 15 political parties.
The only first is the appearance of newly registered voters aged 18 to 20 under Undi18. Many analysts have mistakenly described their appearance in this election as a game changer.
How can the Undi18 bloc be a game changer when they constitute only a mere 173,177 or 22.2% of new voters? In term of total voters, they are a measly 6.7% (See Table below).
There goes Muda’s chance of making a mark in this election for not analysing properly the demographic (age) profile of the Johor voters.
This means Muda, just like all other parties, would have to reach out mainly to the older voters especially those from age 30 to 59 (53.6% of total voters) in order to make a mark in this election.
If BN/Umno wins BIG, Muda will be remembered as one of the parties that are responsible for splitting the votes against BN/Umno, along with Pejuang and Warisan.

Voters older than the Undi18 bloc that can be classified as young would be those aged 21 to 29 though for statistical purposes, the United Nations defines youth as people between the ages of 15 and 24.
And true enough those in the 21 to 29 age group form the biggest bloc of new voters numbering 567,768 (72.8% of new voters, 21.8% of total voters).
If we combine them with the Undi18 bloc, then new voters below age 30 number some 740,945 people (95% of new voters). This looks very impressive but again they form only a mere 28.5% of total voters.
Moreover there are bound to be differences in mind-set, aspiration and behaviour between the Undi18 bloc and those in the 21 to 29 bloc, as both are not a homogenous group.
The last time an election on the scale of the Johor state election in term of excitement, rush of adrenalin and the probable deep anxiety while counting is in progress on the evening of March 12, is the 14^th General Election (GE14) in 2018.
Back then many analysts including local and international mainstream media were predicting on a BN landslide victory despite the 1MDB issue was used as a fodder during campaigning.
Who would have thought then that the mighty BN, with Umno as its lynchpin and in having powerful warlords like Najib Razak and Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, which has ruled the country for some 60 years, and had won election after election during that 60 years would collapse?
Even your Editor, back then, was making the same conclusion and had to make a personal penance of “retiring” from writing comment pieces for a year when the opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan won.
So in 2018 when the 1MDB issue turned out to be the decisive factor in the fall of BN after it was pooh-poohed as a non issue in GE14, will history repeat itself in the Johor election when corruption, integrity and the rule of law take centre stage yet again in winning the election, after these issues are being castigated by BN and many analysts as a non-issue during campaigning?
Also will history repeat itself in the Johor election when the favourite to win i.e. Umno/BN with its hustings featuring the convict Bossku drawing large crowds, turn out to be the loser as in GE14?
The answer is it’s anyone’s guess really!

Is it necessarily true that political campaign events during an election where a particular party is persistently successful in attracting huge crowds would mean that party will win a landslide victory in the election?
Well, the short answer is: It’s anyone’s guess!
We all know that in BN/Umno’s campaign events in the Johor election that feature its former president, Datuk Sri Najib Razak with his moniker “Bossku” have drawn large crowds.
Not only you don’t see these large crowds in the campaign events of other political parties, but also you don’t see these large crowds too in BN/Umno campaign events, absence Bossku.
This is also the basis why many political analysts have made the prediction that Umno/BN will win BIG in the Johor election, forgetting the fact that the last time in Malaysian elections where a certain party was able to draw huge crowds in its campaign events, that huge crowds did not translate into huge votes.
In fact, most of the time that party lost the election despite swelling attendance that overflowed the venue.
And BN history itself is another proof that huge crowds during campaign events was not a prerequisite to win an election, as for 60 years BN had won election after election without relying on huge crowds.
However, credit goes to Bossku who is able to turn his predicament of being the first former prime minister in Malaysian history to be convicted, into a personality cult that has mesmerised the rakyat.
Najib seems to be carried away with this successful personality cult that he has created for himself when he can’t even find the time to meet the Speaker of Parliament who has ordered him to explain his remarks on 1MDB debt repayment in Parliament, which many MPs had said it was an attempt on his part to mislead Parliament.
Fortunately for him, his letter to the Speaker was received on March 8, the deadline given by the Speaker for him to meet the latter. In that letter he asked for more time to explain the issue, as he was campaigning in Johor.
The Speaker then decided to give him time until next Tuesday morning (March 15) to explain the issue.
So, how are we to make out this personality cult phenomenon we are seeing for the first time in Umno’s history during an election?
According to Bersatu’s President, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, people are just curious and want to see for themselves this glamorous convict (Najib), whom he described as a “plundering idiot”.
Najib too seems to be aware that huge crowds do not necessarily translate into huge votes because after each event that he attended, he would always make an appeal to the crowds that he hopes the huge crowds he sees whenever he leads the campaign events would be translated into huge votes.
Others postulated that it is Najib’s desperate attempt to be associated as the person who is responsible for Umno gaining a BIG victory in the election just like what he did in the Melaka election, which will then pave the way for him and his allies to nominate a new president of Umno that is subservient to them in the looming battle for the presidency in Umno’s annual general meeting which is expected to be held in November.
With this strategy, it is hoped then that the new Umno president will lead BN/Umno to victory in GE15.
And with this victory, it would be easier for the new subservient PM to take care of him and the other members of the court cluster. If it’s too difficult to overturn the verdict, for instance, who knows a pardon could be arranged!
But for this to happen, some analysts think Umno would need to take advantage of the momentum in the anticipated Umno BIG victory in the Johor election by putting tremendous pressure on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob who is an Umno vice-president to dissolve parliament soon so that GE15 can be called.
Umno’s deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan known affectionately as Tok Mat was reported to have said Umno will urge Prime Minister Ismail Sabri to dissolve Parliament regardless of whether BN wins big or loses in Johor.
This is despite Najib and his allies including Tok Mat himself know the federal government, which is led by an Umno PM has a memorandum of understanding with the opposition not to dissolve parliament until after July this year.
But Tok Mat is the only Umno leader who has expressed worry over the possibility that the Johor election’s outcome might end up similar to the 2018 polls results.

While BN has placed emphasis on political stability in its manifesto, which is also the raison d’être for calling an early state election in Johor, there’s not much detail on how it wants to achieve this.
Will giving each assemblyman regardless of whether he or she belongs to the government or opposition RM200,000 annual allowances for constituency works highlighted in its manifesto ensure political stability
This is not a new idea and has already been implemented by the Johor government but it did not result in political stability since the state government has to call for an early election.
Will enacting an anti-hopping law for Johor assemblymen and striving to realign electoral boundaries in areas with a dense voter population “to empower democracy” sufficient to achieve political stability?
Yet to be seen, and moreover these are ideas common to all political parties.
The key here is because of the double whammy of the pandemic and economic downturn for the past two years, it’s economic stability initiatives that matter as it will put monies into the pockets of the bottom layer of the rakyat so that they can meet their bread and butter issues.
To boost public infrastructure in the state by integrating its public bus and rail services with the Johor Bahru-Singapore RTS Link service, as mentioned in BN manifesto is fine, but that does not put monies immediately in the pockets of the bottom layer of the society.
On the contrary, building a fisherman’s jetty in Kampung Desa Banang even though the Batu Pahat Fishermen Association had applied for one almost 10 years ago when BN was the state government, will immediately put monies on the fishermen’s pocket, as a jetty will make it easier for the fishermen especially among the Orang Asli community to earn a living.
Ditto with offering a free water scheme of 20 cubic metres to low-income households, expanding the Prihatin Rakyat Sales Programme, continuing the distribution of Johor Prihatin food baskets on a regular basis, and strengthening the coordination for the distribution of Prihatin Rakyat aid to ensure no one is being left out, including persons with disabilities, are not only doable but will definitely help the bottom layer of the society.
The same with special aid for the hawkers affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in the form of elimination of license fees and rental of business sites owned by local authorities for a period of five years.
This focus of the voters on their bread and butter issues via economic stability is backed by some recent surveys.
In a survey ala Gallup Poll, which Let’s Talk! did after the Johor state assembly was dissolved but nomination and polling days weren’t announced yet, Umno/BN led the poll followed by PH and PN.
In a new similar survey we did on March 8 and 9, the result was both BN and PN are in the lead, followed by PH.
But there is a disclaimer. The Johoreans we interviewed may change their mind on polling day. Hence, as the heading of this newsletter says: It’s anyone guess really.
Which party/coalition will win, the results will only be known at the latest by the morning of March 13. Here are the details of the latest poll we did:

Read more on election manifestos, economic stability, and bread and butter issues:

BN launches Johor polls manifesto, pledges to govern with integrity in ‘new political narrative’

PN launches ‘Demi Bangsa Johor’ manifesto for Johor polls

Three key thrusts of Johor PH manifesto

Johor polls: Don’t ignore needs of the Orang Asli community, elected reps told

Johor voters worried about their livelihood, survey shows

Unemployment, economic stability matter most in Johor

On March 12, more than 2.59 million Johoreans voters will decide on not only who is going to be their state representatives but also which party/coalition would form their state government.

Unlike previous elections in Malaysia including federal elections, many records were broken in the Johor election.

Firstly, the number of newly registered voters is the highest – some staggering 779,743 – a 43% increase in voters from the 2018 election. This is followed by a record of 239 candidates including 16 Independents, and 15 political parties.

The only first is the appearance of newly registered voters aged 18 to 20 under Undi18. Many analysts have mistakenly described their appearance in this election as a game changer.

How can the Undi18 bloc become a game changer when they constitute only a mere 173,177 or 22.2% of new voters? In term of total voters, they are a measly 6.7%.

There goes Muda’s chance of making a mark in this election for not analysing properly the demographic (age) profile of the Johor voters.

This means Muda, just like all other parties would have to reach out mainly to the older voters especially those from age 30 to 59 (53.6% of total voters) in order to make a mark in this election.

If BN/Umno wins BIG, Muda will be remembered as one of the parties that are responsible for splitting the votes against BN/Umno, along with Pejuang and Warisan.

Voters older than the Undi18 bloc that can be classified as young would be those aged 21 to 29 though for statistical purposes, the United Nations defines youth as people between the ages of 15 and 24.

And this youthful bloc in the 21 to 29 age group forms the biggest bloc of new voters numbering 567,768 (72.8% of new voters, 21.8% of total voters).

If we combine them with the Undi18 bloc, then new voters below age 30 number some 740,945 people (95% of new voters). This looks very impressive but again they form only a mere 28.5% of total voters.

Moreover there are bound to be differences in mind-set, aspiration and behaviour between the Undi18 bloc and those in the 21 to 29 bloc, as both are not a homogenous group.

The last time an election on the scale of the Johor state election in term of excitement, rush of adrenalin and the probable deep anxiety while counting is in progress on the evening of March 12, is the 14^th General Election (GE14) in 2018.

Back then many analysts including local and international mainstream media were predicting on a BN landslide victory despite the 1MDB issue was used as a fodder during campaigning.

Who would have thought then that the mighty BN, with Umno as its lynchpin and in having powerful warlords like Najib Razak and Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, which has ruled the country for some 60 years, and had won election after election during that 60 years would collapse?

We all know that in BN/Umno’s campaign events in the Johor election that feature its former president, Datuk Sri Najib Razak with his moniker “Bossku” have drawn large crowds.

Not only you don’t see these large crowds in the campaign events of other political parties, but also you don’t see these large crowds too in BN/Umno campaign events, absence Bossku.

This is also the basis why many political analysts have made the prediction that Umno/BN will win BIG in the Johor election, forgetting the fact that the last time in Malaysian elections where a certain party was able to draw huge crowds in its campaign events, that huge crowds did not translate into huge votes.

In fact, most of the time that party lost the election despite swelling attendance that overflowed the venue.

And BN history itself is another proof that huge crowds during campaign events was not a prerequisite to win an election, as for 60 years BN had won election after election without relying on huge crowds.

However, credit goes to Bossku who is able to turn his predicament of being the first former prime minister in Malaysian history to be convicted, into a personality cult that has mesmerised the rakyat.

Najib seems to be carried away with this successful personality cult that he has created for himself when he can’t even find the time to meet the Speaker of Parliament who has ordered him to explain his remarks on 1MDB debt repayment in Parliament, which many MPs had said it was an attempt on his part to mislead Parliament.

Fortunately for him, his letter to the Speaker was received on March 8, the deadline given by the Speaker for him to meet the latter. In that letter he asked for more time to explain the issue, as he was campaigning in Johor.

The Speaker then decided to give him time until next Tuesday morning (March 15) to explain the issue.

So, how are we to make out this personality cult phenomenon we are seeing for the first time in Umno’s history during an election?

According to Bersatu’s President, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, people are just curious and want to see closely for themselves this glamorous convict (Najib), whom he described as a “plundering idiot”.

Najib too seems to be aware that huge crowds do not necessarily translate into huge votes because after each event that he attended, he would always make an appeal to the crowds that he hopes the huge crowds he sees whenever he leads the campaign events would be translated into huge votes.

Others postulated that it is Najib’s desperate attempt to be associated as the person who is responsible for Umno gaining a BIG victory in the election just like what he did in the Melaka election, which will then pave the way for him and his allies to nominate a new president of Umno that is subservient to them in the looming battle for the presidency in Umno’s annual general meeting which is expected to be held in November.

With this strategy, it is hoped then that the new Umno president will lead BN/Umno to victory in GE15.

And with this victory, it would be easier for the new subservient PM to take care of him and the other members of the court cluster. If it’s too difficult to overturn the verdict, for instance, who knows a pardon could be arranged!

But for this to happen, some analysts think Umno would need to take advantage of the momentum in the anticipated Umno BIG victory in the Johor election by putting tremendous pressure on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob who is an Umno vice-president to dissolve parliament soon so that GE15 can be called.

Umno’s deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan known affectionately as Tok Mat was reported to have said Umno will urge Prime Minister Ismail Sabri to dissolve Parliament regardless of whether BN wins big or loses in Johor.

This is despite Najib and his allies including Tok Mat himself know the federal government, which is led by an Umno PM has a memorandum of understanding with the opposition not to dissolve parliament until after July this year.

But Tok Mat is the only Umno leader who has expressed worry over the possibility that the Johor election’s outcome might end up similar to the 2018 polls results.

While BN has placed emphasis on political stability in its manifesto, which is also the raison d’être for calling an early state election in Johor, there’s not much detail on how it wants to achieve this.

Will giving each assemblyman regardless of whether he or she belongs to the government or opposition RM200,000 annual allowances for constituency works highlighted in its manifesto ensure political stability?

This is not a new idea and has already been implemented by the Johor government but it did not result in political stability since the state government has to call for an early election.

Will enacting an anti-hopping law for Johor assemblymen and striving to realign electoral boundaries in areas with a dense voter population “to empower democracy” sufficient to achieve political stability?

Yet to be seen, and moreover these are ideas common to all political parties.

The key here is because of the double whammy of the pandemic and economic downturn for the past two years, it’s economic stability initiatives that matter, as it will put monies into the pockets of the bottom layer of the rakyat so that they can meet their bread and butter issues.

To boost public infrastructure in the state by integrating its public bus and rail services with the Johor Bahru-Singapore RTS Link service as mentioned in BN manifesto is fine, but that does not put monies immediately in the pockets of the bottom layer of the society.

On the contrary, building a fisherman’s jetty in Kampung Desa Banang even though the Batu Pahat Fishermen Association had applied for one almost 10 years ago when BN was the state government will immediately put monies on the fishermen’s pocket, as a jetty will make it easier for the fishermen especially among the Orang Asli community to earn a living.

Ditto with offering a free water scheme of 20 cubic metres to low-income households, expanding the Prihatin Rakyat Sales Programme, continuing the distribution of Johor Prihatin food baskets on a regular basis, and strengthening the coordination for the distribution of Prihatin Rakyat aid to ensure no one is being left out, including persons with disabilities, are not only doable but will definitely help the bottom layer of the society.

The same with special aid for the hawkers affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in the form of elimination of license fees and rental of business sites owned by local authorities for a period of five years.

This focus of the voters on their bread and butter issues via economic stability is backed by some recent surveys.

In a survey ala Gallup Poll, which Let’s Talk! did after the Johor state assembly was dissolved but nomination and polling days weren’t announced yet, Umno/BN led the poll followed by PH and PN.

In a new similar survey we did on March 8 and 9, the result was both PN and BN are in the lead, followed by PH.

But there is a disclaimer. The Johoreans we interviewed may change their mind on polling day. Hence, as the heading of this newsletter says: It’s anyone guess really.

Which party/coalition will win, the results will only be known at the latest by the morning of March 13. Here are the details of the latest poll we did:

Regards,

Jamari Mohtar

Editor,

Let’s Talk!

Despite the buoyant and bullish anticipation of BN and many analysts that Umno/BN will win BIG in the Johor state election, your Editor, Jamari Mohtar, still think the winner of this election, let alone winning BIG, is anyone’s guess.

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