Holding GE15 this year equivalent to “derhaka” is stretching things too far

Vol 2 No 32 | October 2022

Your Editor, Jamari Mohtar, thinks there are many pros and cons in holding the 15^th General Election (GE15) this year, so too is holding it next year; hence the best course of action is to let Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakup decide on the timing of when he wants to have an audience with the King to advise him to dissolve Parliament.

On Oct 1, DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke said Umno’s refusal to budge from holding polls this year showed that it was deliberately ignoring the Federal Constitution, which provides the Yang Di-Pertuan Agong with discretionary powers with regards to elections.
“Isn’t this derhaka against the institution of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong?” the Seremban MP asked in a statement, using the Malay word for rebellion or treason.
Citing Article 40(2)(b) of the Federal Constitution, Loke said the clause clearly provides the Yang di-Pertuan Agong the power to disallow a request to dissolve Parliament.
No one is actually disputing this constitutional provision mentioned by Loke, thus it is very strange why he brought up this issue.
He was actually responding to news reports that Umno supreme council has set a date for the 15^thGeneral Election (GE15) and that its vice-president and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob will seek an audience with the Yang Di-Pertuan Agong to seek a dissolution of Parliament soon.
To Loke, the Umno supreme council was setting a condition for the King and ignored the monarch’s constitutional discretionary powers.
This is really stretching things too far in attributing Umno’s move as derhaka when it is just a simple matter of Umno wanting a consensus among its top guns on when to hold GE15.
And because the dissolution of Parliament is a must before an election can be held, the Prime Minister will have to seek an audience with the King to get his assent to dissolve the legislature.
In any parliamentary democracy, it is the incumbent Prime Minister who holds the first key to the dissolution of Parliament in the form of having an audience with the King to advise His Majesty to dissolve Parliament.
No one is given the right to share this constitutional privilege of the incumbent PM.
The Constitution also provides for the King then to either give his assent or reject it.
There is nothing unconstitutional or derhaka in this. Past dissolution of Parliament in Malaysia always began with this first step.

Loke then went on to say that it had never happened in the history of the country that an open statement regarding the dissolution of Parliament was issued before the prime minister received the approval of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong.
Well, he should study properly the statement made by Umno’s Secretary General, Datuk Ahmad Maslan on Sep 30 to the media after an Umno Supreme Council meeting was held.
The announcement made by Ahmad Maslan is not about the exact date of when Parliament will be dissolved nor when GE 15 will be held.
That can only happen after the King has given his assent, and it is not for Ahmad Maslan to announce it even if assent is given. And he didn’t announce it.
All Ahmad Maslan said was Malaysia will have GE 15 once PM Ismail meets the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve the Dewan Rakyat.
“The dissolution of parliament will be made soon and the general election will be held this year. The prime minister will present the date of the dissolution to the king in the near future,” he said.
“This is in line with Umno’s stand that the mandate should be returned to the people to establish a stable government following the fall of the Pakatan Harapan government due to its own internal crisis in 2020.”
The Pontian MP said with Umno Supreme Council consensus, the party’s election machinery across the country has been told to be on standby.
Loke should take note that Ahmad Maslan never even disclosed the specific date on when the PM will be meeting the King (and this info is known only to the PM), let alone the exact date the PM feels it is suitable for the dissolution of Parliament or GE15 to be held (again a privileged info known only to the PM).
So why accused Umno of being derhaka?
His statement that it had never happened in the history of the country that an open statement regarding the dissolution of Parliament was issued before the PM received the approval of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, is thus hot air.
If we were to use past precedents, once Parliament has entered its fourth year from the date of its first sitting, general election was held which took place at anytime within the one year left of Parliament’s existence.
There were cases where a GE was held after three years had passed from Parliament’s first sitting but this is rare. (See Table 1 below).

In the present case, Parliament has entered its fourth year on July 16 this year, and so it is the time to hold an election anytime from now to July 16 next year because if by then election is not held, Parliament will automatically dissolve itself for an election to be held within 60 days after that.
Of course it is totally a different matter if Loke feels holding the election this year (slightly less than three months now to a new year) is not a good decision because of the monsoon season where the threat of a big flood like last year may occur.
If this is the case, not only Loke, but also some members of the Cabinet and quite a strong segment of the rakyat do not want election to be held this year for precisely the same reason.
Moreover based on past precedent, a GE was never held in October, November or December except in 1990 and 1999 when then prime minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, called for GE8 and GE10 on Oct 21 and Nov 29 respectively (see Table 1 above).
Mahathir has since explained doing the same this year would put lives at stake due to the impact of climate change.
“The country is experiencing climate change which causes extraordinary disaster to the point that houses are covered by water.
“In the past, it was fine to hold an election at the end of the year. There were floods but it was not extraordinary. But if you hold (election) now, maybe the people will die because of floods,” the nonagenarian said on Sep 20.
So do not be too trigger-happy in using the word “derhaka”. In Malaysia, treason is among some crimes punishable by the death penalty.
If Umno is derhaka, who then in Umno will be put to death? Perhaps Loke can clarify on this.

In some countries that practise parliamentary democracy, a snap election would be called to capitalise on an unusual electoral opportunity or to decide a pressing issue, under circumstances when an election is not required by law or convention.
Since the power to call snap elections usually lies with the incumbent, they often result in increased majorities for the party already in power provided they have been called at an advantageous time.
However, snap elections can also backfire on the incumbent resulting in a decreased majority or in some cases the opposition winning or gaining power.
Thus, a snap election can be defined as one that is called earlier than scheduled.
In the case of Malaysia, based on precedent, election is scheduled to be held anytime after four years have elapsed since the first sitting of parliament.
We now have less than a year – about nine months – to hold an election, so to describe an election around this time as a snap election is a misnomer.
It is a scheduled one whether it is held this year or next year.
So it is within Umno’s right especially being a component party of the ruling coalition to demand an election to be held this year.
Umno has been clamouring for a snap election since last year for two reasons: it saw an electoral opportunity of winning BIG judging from its victories in the Sabah, Sarawak, Melaka and Johor state elections, and also the party believes a snap election will return a stable government into office.
From the perspective of political science, this is perfectly all right and there is nothing indecent in it. Any political party in Umno’s position will do the same.

The opposition would normally go along with it unless it is not ready to face an election, in which it will then make some small noises.
However, this time around the noises it makes are not small but very deafening which just give the strong impression that the opposition is not ready to face an election this year.
This will only make Umno very adamant to push for election this year.
Moreover, the stability that Umno is pushing via holding election this year is becoming more relevant, as the Opposition is already mulling the idea of not voting for Budget 2023, which will only cause hardship to the rakyat.
In fact, instability is already there once the part that pledged avoiding triggering a GE prematurely before July in the Memorandum of Understanding on Transformation and Political Stability between the government and PH had expired on July 31.
Furthermore, this political instability amidst the geopolitical uncertainties brought about by the Ukraine war and the global economic uncertainties caused by interest rate hikes by the US will only get worse.
So Umno is right in wanting to eliminate this instability by holding GE15 as soon as possible within the one year of Parliament’s existence left, which has now become nine months.
The only reason as mentioned earlier why it is not conducive to hold GE15 this year is the threat of a big flood due to climate change.
But knowing a problem is already half the solution. So in the event if GE15 is held this year, the government must double up its efforts to mitigate the worst effect of the big flood.
You can’t avoid flood – big or small – especially during monsoon season but you can certainly mitigate the harmful effects of a big flood on lives and property.

And the nature of climate change is such that extreme weather will happen regularly but unpredictably.
The worst flood that happened in Baling recently occurred outside the coming monsoon season, so this is what unpredictability in climate change means.
Most weather experts said the best time to hold GE15 is starting from February or March onwards, but can they guarantee with the unpredictable nature of climate change, there won’t be big flood after February or March?
In the event GE15 is called this year and assuming on polling day there is a big flood, an emergency situation can always be declared and polling day postponed to a later date.
It is not so much that your Editor is pushing all out for GE15 to be held this year. There are compelling reasons for GE15 to be held this year, and at the same there are also equally compelling reasons for it to be held next year.
Under such circumstances, it doesn’t really matter whether election is held this year or next, just let PM Ismail decide on when he wants to seek an audience with the King on the dissolution of Parliament.
And let the King decide on whether to give his assent or not.
Whatever the decision, the rakyat should and must accept it!

Read more on Umno’s call for GE15 to be held this year, and the opposition’s refusal to allow this:

DAP sec-gen says Umno insistence on polls this year akin to ‘derhaka’ against Agong

PM to meet king soon on parliament dissolution, says Umno

Ahmad Zahid: Opposition are running scared of GE15, trying to buy time with flood, inflation narrative

Rafizi under fire over campaign plans during floods

Fitch Solutions: Status quo for M’sia’s political uncertainty until after GE15

When will GE 15 be held?

Umno confident GE15 will be held between October and December

Climate change makes GE15 during monsoon a fatal affair, Dr M warns

Year-end not the right time to hold GE15: Experts

Proposing dissolution of Parliament is PM’s prerogative, says Ismail

On Oct 1, DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke said Umno’s refusal to budge from holding polls this year showed that it was deliberately ignoring the Federal Constitution, which provides the Yang Di-Pertuan Agong with discretionary powers with regards to elections.

“Isn’t this derhaka against the institution of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong?” the Seremban MP asked in a statement, using the Malay word for rebellion or treason.

Citing Article 40(2)(b) of the Federal Constitution, Loke said the clause clearly provides the Yang di-Pertuan Agong the power to disallow a request to dissolve Parliament.

No one is actually disputing this constitutional provision mentioned by Loke, thus it is very strange why he brought up this issue.

He was actually responding to news reports that Umno supreme council has set a date for the 15^th General Election (GE15) and that its vice-president and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob will seek an audience with the Yang Di-Pertuan Agong to seek a dissolution of Parliament soon.

To Loke, the Umno supreme council was setting a condition for the King and ignored the monarch’s constitutional discretionary powers.

This is really stretching things too far in attributing Umno’s move as derhaka when it is just a simple matter of Umno wanting a consensus among its top guns on when to hold GE15.

And because the dissolution of Parliament is a must before an election can be held, the Prime Minister will have to seek an audience with the King to get his assent to dissolve the legislature.

In any parliamentary democracy, it is the incumbent Prime Minister who holds the first key to the dissolution of Parliament in the form of having an audience with the King to advise His Majesty to dissolve Parliament.

No one is given the right to share this constitutional privilege of the incumbent PM.

The Constitution also provides for the King then to either give his assent or reject it.

There is nothing unconstitutional or derhaka in this. Past dissolution of Parliament in Malaysia always began with this first step.

Loke then went on to say that it had never happened in the history of the country that an open statement regarding the dissolution of Parliament was issued before the prime minister received the approval of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong.

Well, he should study properly the statement made by Umno’s Secretary General, Datuk Ahmad Maslan on Sep 30 to the media after an Umno Supreme Council meeting was held.

The announcement made by Ahmad Maslan is not about the exact date of when Parliament will be dissolved nor when GE 15 will be held.

That can only happen after the King has given his assent, and it is not for Ahmad Maslan to announce it even if assent is given. And he didn’t announce it.

All Ahmad Maslan said was Malaysia will have GE 15 once PM Ismail meets the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve the Dewan Rakyat.

“The dissolution of parliament will be made soon and the general election will be held this year. The prime minister will present the date of the dissolution to the king in the near future,” he said.

“This is in line with Umno’s stand that the mandate should be returned to the people to establish a stable government following the fall of the Pakatan Harapan government due to its own internal crisis in 2020.”

The Pontian MP said with Umno Supreme Council consensus, the party’s election machinery across the country has been told to be on standby.

Loke should take note that Ahmad Maslan never even disclosed the specific date on when the PM will be meeting the King (and this info is known only to the PM), let alone the exact date the PM feels it is suitable for the dissolution of Parliament or GE15 to be held (again a privileged info known only to the PM).

So why accused Umno of being derhaka?

His statement that it had never happened in the history of the country that an open statement regarding the dissolution of Parliament was issued before the PM received the approval of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, is thus hot air.

If we were to use past precedents, once Parliament has entered its fourth year from the date of its first sitting, general election was held which took place at anytime within the one year left of Parliament’s existence.

There were cases where a GE was held after three years had passed from Parliament’s first sitting but this is rare. (See Table 1 below).

In the present case, Parliament has entered its fourth year on July 16 this year, and so it is the time to hold an election anytime from now to July 16 next year because if by then election is not held, Parliament will automatically dissolve itself for an election to be held within 60 days after that.

Of course it is totally a different matter if Loke feels holding the election this year (slightly less than three months now to a new year) is not a good decision because of the monsoon season where the threat of a big flood like last year may occur.

If this is the case, not only Loke, but also some members of the Cabinet and quite a strong segment of the rakyat do not want election to be held this year for precisely the same reason.

Moreover based on past precedent, a GE was never held in October, November or December except in 1990 and 1999 when then prime minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, called for GE8 and GE10 on Oct 21 and Nov 29 respectively (see Table 1 above).

Mahathir has since explained doing the same this year would put lives at stake due to the impact of climate change.

“The country is experiencing climate change which causes extraordinary disaster to the point that houses are covered by water.

“In the past, it was fine to hold an election at the end of the year. There were floods but it was not extraordinary. But if you hold (election) now, maybe the people will die because of floods,” the nonagenarian said on Sep 20.

So do not be too trigger-happy in using the word “derhaka”. In Malaysia, treason is among some crimes punishable by the death penalty.

So if Umno is derhaka, who then in Umno will be put to death? Perhaps Loke can clarify on this.

In some countries that practise parliamentary democracy, a snap election would be called to capitalise on an unusual electoral opportunity or to decide a pressing issue, under circumstances when an election is not required by law or convention.

Since the power to call snap elections usually lies with the incumbent, they often result in increased majorities for the party already in power provided they have been called at an advantageous time.

However, snap elections can also backfire on the incumbent resulting in a decreased majority or in some cases the opposition winning or gaining power.

Thus, a snap election can be defined as one that is called earlier than scheduled.

In the case of Malaysia, based on precedent, election is scheduled to be held anytime after four years have elapsed since the first sitting of parliament.

We now have less than a year – about nine months – to hold an election, so to describe an election around this time as a snap election is a misnomer.

It is a scheduled one whether it is held this year or next year.

So it is within Umno’s right especially being a component party of the ruling coalition to demand an election to be held this year.

Umno has been clamouring for a snap election since last year for two reasons: it saw an electoral opportunity of winning BIG judging from its victories in the Sabah, Sarawak, Melaka and Johor state elections, and also the party believes a snap election will return a stable government into office.

From the perspective of political science, this is perfectly all right and there is nothing indecent in it. Any political party in Umno’s position will do the same.

The opposition would normally go along with it unless it is not ready to face an election, in which it will then make some small noises.

However, this time around the noises it makes are not small but very deafening which just give the strong impression that the opposition is not ready to face an election this year.

This will only make Umno very adamant to push for election this year.

Moreover, the stability that Umno is pushing via holding election this year is becoming more relevant, as the Opposition is already mulling the idea of not voting for Budget 2023, which will only cause hardship to the rakyat.

In fact, instability is already there once the part that pledged avoiding triggering a GE prematurely before July in the Memorandum of Understanding on Transformation and Political Stability between the government and PH had expired on July 31.

Furthermore, this political instability amidst the geopolitical uncertainties brought about by the Ukraine war and the global economic uncertainties caused by interest rate hikes by the US will only get worse.

So Umno is right in wanting to eliminate this instability by holding GE15 as soon as possible within the one year of Parliament’s existence left, which has now become nine months.

The only reason as mentioned earlier why it is not conducive to hold GE15 this year is the threat of a big flood due to climate change.

But knowing a problem is already half the solution. So in the event if GE15 is held this year, the government must double up its efforts to mitigate the worst effect of the big flood.

You can’t avoid flood – big or small – especially during monsoon season but you can certainly mitigate the harmful effects of a big flood on lives and property.

And the nature of climate change is such that extreme weather will happen regularly but unpredictably.

The worst flood that happened in Baling recently occurred outside the coming monsoon season, so this is what unpredictability in climate change means.

Most weather experts said the best time to hold GE15 is starting from February or March onwards, but can they guarantee with the unpredictable nature of climate change, there won’t be big flood after February or March?

In the event GE15 is called this year and assuming on polling day there is a big flood, an emergency situation can always be declared and polling day postponed to a later date.

It is not so much that your Editor is pushing all out for GE15 to be held this year. There are compelling reasons for GE15 to be held this year, and at the same there are also equally compelling reasons for it to be held next year.

Under such circumstances, it doesn’t really matter whether election is held this year or next, just let PM Ismail decide on when he wants to seek an audience with the King on the dissolution of Parliament.

And let the King decide on whether to give his assent or not. Whatever the decision, the rakyat should and must accept it!

Regards,

Jamari Mohtar

Editor, Let’s Talk!

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